Examining the Presidential Narrative Against Available Data
The Tinubu administration and APC officials regularly assert that Nigeria is on the right track and that the bold reforms of the first term have laid the groundwork for sustained prosperity. This narrative is central to the case for re-election in 2027. This fact-check systematically examines available data across multiple indicators to assess whether the claim that Nigeria is on the right track is supported by evidence.
The Verdict: False for Most Nigerians
The claim that Nigeria is on the right track under Tinubu is false for the majority of Nigerians when evaluated against indicators that measure ordinary citizen welfare. Poverty rates are higher. Food prices are substantially elevated. Real wages have fallen significantly in purchasing power terms. Infrastructure, particularly electricity, has not improved meaningfully. Insecurity in the North and other regions continues unabated. These are not opposition talking points. They are documented realities reflected in official and independent data.
The administration can point to certain positive macro indicators: some improvement in forex stability, increased foreign portfolio investment interest, and declining headline inflation from its peak. These are real but narrow improvements that affect the lives of a small minority of Nigerians with assets in financial markets. For the vast majority without such assets, the trajectory of their daily lives has not improved and in many cases has worsened under Tinubu watch.
The Poverty Data
Multiple credible poverty assessments, including those using World Bank methodology, show an increase in absolute poverty since 2023. The number of Nigerians living below the poverty line has increased by tens of millions since the removal of the fuel subsidy. Whatever the long-term macroeconomic justification for that reform, the immediate effect was to push millions of Nigerians deeper into poverty, and recovery from that shock has been slow and insufficient.
The right track narrative also fails to account for the quality of employment. Even for Nigerians who are technically employed, the quality and income of that employment has deteriorated significantly. Informal sector workers, market traders, artisans, and transport workers who form the backbone of Nigeria working class have seen their real incomes collapse as the cost of living has outpaced any income growth they have experienced.
Conclusion
Overall Rating: FALSE for ordinary Nigerians. The claim that Nigeria is on the right track under Tinubu is a macro narrative that does not reflect the lived reality of the majority of citizens. Genuine progress on a narrow set of financial market indicators does not constitute being on the right track for a country where most people are getting poorer, less secure, and less well-served by public institutions than they were before the Tinubu administration began. Nigeria deserves leaders who are honest about the distance between rhetoric and reality.
