Examining the Claims and Counter-Claims Surrounding the 2023 Presidential Result
Peter Obi and his supporters have consistently maintained that he won the 2023 presidential election and that the declared result was the product of manipulation. Tinubu supporters and the APC have rejected this claim, arguing that the election was free and fair and that their candidate won legitimately. This fact-check examines the available evidence and what it tells us about what actually happened in February 2023.
The Verdict: Contested with Credible Evidence of Irregularities
The 2023 presidential election was conducted under a legal framework that included INEC requirement to upload results in real time from polling units to a public portal called IReV. When the actual results were eventually declared, significant discrepancies were reported between the figures on IReV and the figures announced by INEC at collation centers. These discrepancies were documented by independent observers and election monitoring organizations.
The Presidential Election Petition Tribunal and subsequently the Supreme Court upheld Tinubu election. However, legal scholars and opposition lawyers have argued that the evidentiary standards applied by the courts were inconsistent and that critical documentary evidence that could have affected the outcome was excluded on procedural grounds. The courts verdict is legally final, but the question of what actually happened electorally remains genuinely contested.
What Election Observers Reported
International election observer missions including the EU Observer Mission, the Commonwealth Observer Group, and the Carter Center all noted significant irregularities in the 2023 elections, including violence, voter suppression in certain areas, and concerns about the integrity of the collation process. Their reports, while not claiming to know who actually won, raised serious questions about whether the declared result accurately reflected voter intent.
Domestic observer organizations including YIAGA Africa and CDD conducted parallel vote tabulation exercises that produced results in some states that differed significantly from the officially declared figures. These discrepancies added to the controversy surrounding the election outcome and contributed to widespread public doubt about the legitimacy of the declared winner.
The Electoral Lesson for 2027
Whatever one believes about the 2023 outcome, the 2023 experience has important implications for 2027. Civil society organizations and the Labour Party have been working since 2023 to ensure stronger electoral safeguards, including more rigorous monitoring of the IReV system, better coordination of parallel vote tabulation, and greater legal preparedness to challenge any manipulation of results.
Overall Rating: CONTESTED. The claim that Peter Obi was robbed of victory in 2023 is neither definitively proven nor definitively disproven by available evidence. What is clear is that the 2023 election had significant irregularities documented by credible international and domestic observers, that the legal process did not fully resolve all evidentiary questions, and that 2027 must feature much stronger electoral safeguards to ensure a result that Nigerians can trust.
