Eight Years of Tinubu Political Dynasty and What Lagos Has to Show for It
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is approaching the end of his constitutionally allowed two terms in office, and the moment invites a comprehensive assessment of his legacy in Lagos State. By what measure can his tenure be judged a success? Certainly not by the experience of commuters who spend hours in traffic that has become worse, not better, under his watch. Not by the victims of annual flooding that destroys homes and businesses because drainage infrastructure has not kept pace with the city growth. Not by the millions of Lagos residents struggling to afford housing in a city where rents have increased beyond the means of the middle class.
The Tinubu political dynasty has controlled Lagos since 1999. In that time, Lagos has grown enormously in population and economic output. But the quality of urban infrastructure and public services has not kept pace with that growth, and the gap between what Lagos could be and what it actually is remains embarrassingly large. Sanwo-Olu tenure, as the latest steward of this dynasty, has not closed that gap. In some areas, it has widened it.
Traffic: The Crisis That Never Gets Solved
Lagos traffic is the most universally experienced daily failure of governance in the city. Commuters on major routes including the Third Mainland Bridge corridor, Lagos Island arteries, and key Mainland roads routinely spend two to four hours in traffic for journeys that should take thirty minutes. The economic cost of this lost time, in terms of reduced productivity, increased transportation costs, and the cumulative quality-of-life degradation for millions of people, is staggering.
Sanwo-Olu traffic management response has been inadequate to the scale of the challenge. The Blue Line rail, while a step forward, covers only a tiny fraction of the commuter population. Bus rapid transit expansion has been slower than promised. Road management interventions by LASTMA and other agencies have produced limited results. And crucially, the land use and development patterns that generate traffic, including the extreme concentration of economic activity in Lagos Island, have not been addressed through the systematic urban planning that could gradually redistribute traffic demand.
Flooding: An Annual Catastrophe
Lagos floods every year. Communities across the state, from Victoria Island to Mainland neighborhoods to peri-urban areas, experience devastating floods during the rainy season that destroy property, displace families, and sometimes kill people. This annual catastrophe is not a natural phenomenon that government cannot prevent. It is the consequence of inadequate drainage infrastructure, illegal development on floodplains, and poor urban planning enforcement that have allowed Lagos to grow in ways that maximize flood vulnerability.
Sanwo-Olu administration has announced various flood management initiatives, but the annual cycle of flooding has not been meaningfully interrupted. Communities that flooded in 2019 still flooded in 2026. The drainage masterplan that would provide a systematic solution to the flooding problem has either not been fully developed or not been adequately funded and implemented. The result is an annual human and economic catastrophe that a more competent and committed state government could have significantly reduced.
Housing: Affordability Crisis Gets Worse
The Lagos housing crisis has deepened under Sanwo-Olu watch. Rent increases have outpaced income growth for virtually every segment of the population below the wealthy elite. Young professionals, civil servants, teachers, nurses, and market traders who form the backbone of Lagos working population find themselves spending impossible proportions of their incomes on housing or moving further from their workplaces, adding to traffic and reducing quality of life.
State housing programs under Sanwo-Olu have not produced units at the scale or price points that would make a meaningful difference to the affordability crisis. The Lagos State Development and Property Corporation housing projects have been too few, too expensive, and too poorly located to address the needs of the millions of ordinary Lagosians who need affordable housing. This is a governance failure with a profound human cost that falls most heavily on the city most economically vulnerable residents.
What Lagos Needs from Its Next Governor
Lagos next governor will face extraordinary challenges: a megacity of over 20 million people, a dysfunctional transport system, a flooding crisis, an affordable housing emergency, a healthcare system under severe strain, and public schools that are failing the children they are supposed to serve. Addressing these challenges requires not just technical competence but political independence from the interests that have benefited from Lagos dysfunction and that will resist any genuine reform.
The Tinubu dynasty successor in Lagos should not be automatically assumed to represent the change the city needs. Real change in Lagos will require a governor who owes nothing to the political machine that has controlled the state for twenty-five years, who has a genuine vision for urban transformation, and who is willing to take on the vested interests in the construction, land, and transport sectors that have shaped Lagos in ways that serve their profits rather than the public interest. Lagos voters have the opportunity in 2027 to demand that kind of governor. Whether they will seize it is one of the most consequential political questions facing Nigeria largest city.
